So here it is… report card for two weeks on the new basal rate — I had to go back down for a 3:30pm to 6:30pm time frame, I’m not sure if it is the basal rate or my commute (walking to the bus and then walking home from the bus), but really the amount of walking shouldn’t (and hasn’t previously) affected my BG to that extent… so that explains/accounts for the lows around 6pm.  Other than that… let’s take a hack at analysis…

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All of this is good — I came down an average of 37 BG, but looking specifically at the average numbers over time, that change was mostly during the day, with night time numbers staying around 230 BG — I estimated that the change across the board would be 30 BG… so that’s pretty damn close… the night time highs could be affected by the lower basal rate from 3:30pm to 6:30pm, but that’s a stretch because really it’s at least 4 hours from the end of the adjustment to when I go to bed, so there should be sufficient basal on board…

lower estimated A1C, lower average BG, minimal increase in time with low BG, but it also indicates that there is more to be done to bring me into my goal range, particularly looking at night time highs (also known as cinnamon brown sugar pop tarts for dessert… or at least exacerbated by…), between a little dessert and having to rebound/treat for a 6pm low my over night numbers are significantly higher than my day time numbers, and outside of my goal night time range of 80-180.

So next possible hypothesis/adjustment… another basal adjustment or a carb ratio adjustment in the evenings… I’m hesitant to raise my basal at all in the evening because of the pattern of 6pm lows… my current average BG over the last two weeks has been 191, so I could lose another 30-40 (.05 /hr adjustment result of -37 BG) and that would put me in range at 154… but if I wake up in a better range it should bring my whole day back into a better spot… okay, so night time basal adjustment, plus trying to cut night time eating… or at least being sure to bolus for the correct amount… so night time bumps up .05/hr to 0.4/hr from 10pm-4am… night time bumps are scary, but okay….  another hypothesis of 30-40 BG average drop… with better night time numbers and minimal change to day time numbers…